What kind of Success?

Nancy Pelosi has said that Obamacare is a success and the battle against it is over. This is proof that she still hasn’t read what’s in it nor has she really looked at the numbers.

The victory is built around the 7-9 million who allegedly signed up for Obamacare. There are many questions about these numbers and whether it is a “success”.

1. How many of these really signed up by making their first payment? One insurance company reported a 20% nonpayment rate. If this is going to be the average then only 5.6-7.2 million actually signed up. The validity and makeup of these number will soon be exposed.

2. How many signed up because of the tax penalty? A high number here would be a victory, lots of prisoners.

3. How many were bumped off their original policies and had no place else to go?

4. How many got subsidies? If Obamacare isn’t going to be a disaster, there has to be a very substantial majority who pay the full load without a subsidy. If an overwhelming majority got subsidies then the government will have to borrow money it doesn’t have to pay for these. Insurance rates will skyrocket in 2015, 2016 and beyond.

5. How many younger people signed up? There is the strategy that the healthier young will subsidize the less healthy older citizens. There are two problems with this:

a. How many younger people signed up and got subsidies? They certainly can’t subsidize the older ones if they got subsidies too!

b. Even if the younger folks signed up to the 40% goal (26% is a recent estimate)and got no subsidies, how are they going to pay for the older sicker ones?

Let’s look at the math on how a young person paying say $300 per month for his or her own coverage can offset a 50 year old with a subsidy discount of $500 per month? In other words if a healthy older person should have paid say $900 per month, but pays only $400 with a $500 government subsidy. How is the younger person going to balance that out?

The numbers will be far worse comparing with older insured with very expensive preexisting conditions.

Then there is the fact that young people get sick too so the $300 isn’t going to go full into offsetting the older person.

6. Last and most important: How many of the uninsured signed up? The last I saw the uninsured rate dropped from about 19% to 14.5%. This was used to prove Obamacare was working. -4.5% is working? This is a victory?  These figures have yet to be validated.

Years down the line, there is an incentive for big corporations to drop healthcare coverage and pay a fine. They can then give their employees raises and still come out ahead. The employees can then go to Obamacare and use part of the raise to pay for a subsidized healthcare plan. This way the corporation saves money. The employees get more pay than the subsidized insurance costs them. The government will have to make up the difference with money it doesn’t have.

The Democrats could have copied from working models in other countries to reduce costs instead they gave the lobbyists almost everything they wanted. The worst among them: the highest drug prices in the world, unneeded health insurance companies and no regulations on hospital chains.

After all of this, we will still have the most expensive, wasteful and corrupt healthcare system in the developed world and getting bigger.

This is a victory for the campaign contribution makers and lobbyists. The American people will have to bear the burden of what is yet to come.




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